Canadian Government Executive - Volume 24 - Issue 04

THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE Global warming is melting Arctic ice and changing the ecology. The Northwest Passage—the shipping route through the region—will be open year-round in a few decades. Traffic growth will affect Northern communities and ecosystems in untold ways. Climate change also presents a governance challenge given the sparse population and sprawling coastline. Consider a few trends. B Y P E T E R S T O Y K O 2010s Ships with specially fortified hulls ( icebreakers ) are required to clear the path in waters with thick sea ice. The proportion of the Arctic ocean covered by thick ice (0.5 metres thick or greater) during the navigation period (June to October) is dwindling. The map below shows projections of sea ice concentrations based on a “business as usual” climate scenario (rising emission levels throughout the century) as calculated by Aksenov et al. (2017). Projected average for navigation period in the 2010s Projected average for navigation period in the 2030s Actual shipping routes can vary considerably depending on ship type and conditions but loosely fall into three main corridors. 1990 2000 2010 1,000,000 km 0 km Total Distance Traveled Annually By Ship in the Canadian Arctic 2030s 34 / Canadian Government Executive // July/August 2018