Canadian Government Executive - Volume 26 - Issue 04

O n September 14, New Brunswick held the first elec- tion in Canada during the COVID-19 period. Provin- cial elections in Atlantic Canada tend not to make headlines across the rest of the country, but this one did because it could potentially serve as a test case for how to run an election during a pandemic. Both Saskatche- wan and British Columbia are headed to the polls in October and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is rumoured to be contemplating a general election some time in the next year. In both New Bruns- wick and British Columbia, the election calls came early – signifi- cantly ahead of the next fixed election date in each province. Though the process in New Brunswick provides some guidance on how to manage COVID-related challenges at the ballot box, it is not easy to compare the overall situation in New Brunswick to that of any other jurisdiction in the country. Both the unique political circumstances in the province and the near-absence of active cases of COVID-19 limit the applicability of the New Bruns- wick election as a valid comparative case study for any other ju- risdiction. It is always a political risk for a premier or a prime minister to seek an early election, as a cranky electorate might punish a gov- ernment for what it sees as an unnecessary election triggered by political opportunism rather than an urgent policy debate. This risk is compounded during a pandemic when public gatherings have been defined (both by public health officials and political leaders themselves) as health risks. In New Brunswick, the sense of risk was surely mitigated by the fact that the spread of COV- ID-19 has been largely contained in New Brunswick and in the At- lantic bubble more generally. In British Columbia, reported cases of COVID-19 were on the rise during the campaign period, which could cause a problem for voters in terms of their willingness to participate. A particularly lousy turnout would threaten to under- mine the perceived legitimacy of the election results, particularly if complications around access to the vote were concentrated in COVID-heavy areas, constituencies, or regions. Turnout for the New Brunswick election was roughly 67 per cent, just a percent- age point lower than where it was in the 2018 election. In New Brunswick, Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs faced a very precise set of circumstances that made a gener- al election call more plausible than it might have otherwise been. There are 49 seats in the New Brunswick legislature: at the time of dissolution, 20 were Progressive Conservative, 20 were Lib - eral, the Greens and the People’s Alliance held three seats each, and three seats were vacant. If three by-elections were called instead of a general election, and the Progressive Conservatives did not win most if not all of them, then Premier Higgs stood to lose his relative strength in the legislature, which was fragile, to begin with. Given that most New Brunswickers approved of his handling of the pandemic, a general election – though politically motivated – seemed a safe bet. And it was. Premier Higgs’ gamble paid off: he will continue as premier and with a majority of the seats in the legislature. But it’s not clear at this point whether his win suggests more broadly that there is an advantage for incumbents during pandemic elections. Most provincial premiers have seen their popularity rise during the pandemic period; Premier Higgs saw his personal popularity hit as high as 80 per cent during the pandemic. British Columbia Premier John Horgan saw numbers close to this, with 73 per cent approving of his handling of the pandemic in a poll in a Research Co. poll held in May. Though he has been criticized for his deci- sion to seek an early election – a full year in advance of the fixed date scheduled for October 2021 – his approval ratings remain high even after the election call, with around two-thirds of British Columbians supporting his pandemic performance. Physical distancing restrictions are perhaps most challenging for new candidates attempting to build trust and familiarity with voters. Knocking on doors and attending crowded events, both typical campaign activities, are not possible in a pandemic, which could make it more difficult for voters to get to know candidates. This certainly seemed to be a problem for New Brunswick Liber - al leader Kevin Vickers, who was never elected to the legislature and struggled to connect with voters in time for the election. Premier Horgan’s early call is perhaps not quite as safe a gam- ble as Premier Higgs’, given the rise of cases of COVID in British Columbia, but polls show that he holds a considerable lead over Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson at the time of writing. The NDP minority government has survived for three years with the sup- port of the Green Party; like Premier Higgs, Premier Horgan is looking for a mandate to govern alone. Though the circumstances around the two early election calls were different, the fact that they happened shows that, even in a pandemic, politics never goes away. D r . L ori T urnbull is the Director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University and the deputy editor of Canadian Government Executive. By Lori Turnbull The LAST WORD 30 / Canadian Government Executive // September/October 2020 Voting in a Pandemic: What can British Columbia learn from New Brunswick?