Canadian Government Executive - Volume 27 - Issue 02

28 / Canadian Government Executive // March/April 2021 I n the general election of 2019, the Liberal government was returned but with a minority of seats in the House of Com- mons. Minority governments at the federal level usually last less than two years, though the minority Conserva- tive government that was elected in 2008 lasted almost 29 months. The current Liberal minority government is now past the 18-month mark and, for many weeks, there has been speculation about when an election could be called. On the one hand, the Liberals have a clear incentive to go to the polls soon. In the first week of May, CBC’s Poll Tracker found that the Liberals had 35.8 per cent of the popular vote compared with 29.5 per cent for the Conservatives and 17.7 per cent for the New Democrats. 1 Support for the Liberals is relatively unchanged after the unveiling of the much-anticipated federal budget back in April, which suggests stability. On the other hand, the realistic worst-case scenario for the Liberals, from a purely political perspective, is go- ing through the effort and expense of an election campaign only to return another minority. In recent history, parties have needed upwards of 39 per cent of the popular vote to form a majority, so the Liberals need a bump in support in order to risk an election. As Abbas Rana has written in The Hill Times, there is a sense among former Liberal Members of Parliament from rural Canada that a majority will elude the Liberals until they manage to connect with rural areas and issues. 2 It is possible that budget promises around infrastructure and the new Universal Broadband Fund will help to mend this fence. Support for the Conservatives seems to be stalled at roughly 30 per cent, which is their dependable base. Without growth beyond this, their incentive for going to an election is nonexistent. They have a lot to lose. A disappointing election result with new leader Erin O’Toole, as a follow up to winning the popular vote but coming second in the seat count in 2019, would be particularly devastating for the Conser- vative movement. This may be why they’ve done their best to stall the progress of Bill C-19, which would introduce measures to sup- port safe elections during pandemic periods. Chief Electoral Officer Stephane Perrault has warned that, if an election were called now, THE LAST WORD WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF AN ELECTION THIS YEAR? BY LORI TURNBULL