Canadian Government Executive - Volume 27 - Issue 03

28 / Canadian Government Executive // May/June 2021 W hen Parliament rose for the summer in late June, political observers awaited a much-an- ticipated election call. Though the Liberal gov- ernment is not even two years old and is no- where near the fixed election date of October 2023, opinion poll data indicate that a majority government for the Liberals is increasingly within reach. Though it could be said that the motivations for the early election call are purely partisan, the election campaign is poised to be a highly compelling one. In the past, our parties have been accused of crowding the political centre in the scramble for votes, thereby failing to offer a true spectrum of choices based on competing values and policy choices. But this election stands to be different; the parties’ offerings will likely be more distinctive than usual. This is not to suggest that parties will abandon their vote-aggre- gating functions entirely; they need to pitch a big tent if they want to form a government. In order to turn their minority into a major- ity, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are counting on a strong showing in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada both in urban and rural ridings. Gains in the West are also a possibility. It is rumoured that the Prime Minister will seek a dissolution of Parliament in mid-August, when the government’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis and the vaccine rollout, as well as promises of a national childcare program, universal broadband, and a high-speed train from Toronto through to Quebec City, are still fresh in voters’ minds. The governing Liberals stand to benefit from disarray on the other side of the House. Erin O’Toole has been the leader of the Conser- vatives for less than a year and, according to the polls, has struggled to resonate with voters. An Ipsos/Global News poll released in June put Conservative support at just 26 per cent nationally, a full 12 points behind the Liberals. Though O’Toole’s lack of momentum would seem like good news for the Liberals, it’s not really the Con- servatives that they have to worry about. The Greens are imploding in a crisis of their own making, but the New Democrats are hold- ing steady at around 20 per cent. The NDP is the party with the THE LAST WORD AN EARLY ELECTION, AND THE LEGISLATION LEFT BEHIND BY LORI TURNBULL