Canadian Government Executive - Volume 27 - Issue 04

20 / Canadian Government Executive // July/August 2021 O n August 15th, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vis- ited newly-installed Governor General Mary Simon to seek a dissolution of Parliament. This was an off- cycle election call (the next election would have been scheduled for October of 2023), but it came as no surprise to anyone. The Liberal government’s intent to turn its mi- nority status into a majority was palpable, to say the least, and the polls suggested that this would be the likely outcome. But at the time of writing, not even halfway through the campaign, the tides have turned: Conservative leader Erin O’Toole has the momentum, the New Democrats are more than holding their own, and the Liberals continue to see their popularity – and that of their leader – decline. What happens if the Liberals don’t get their majority? They can be forgiven for assuming that O’Toole and the Conserva- tives were not going to pose a major challenge. After O’Toole won the leadership of the Conservative Party in August of 2020, in a competi- tion that was carried out largely via Zoom and social media, he never seemed to spark with voters – either inside or outside of the Con- servative tent. But just a week into the campaign, he released a full platform based on compassionate conservatism. He has laid out plans to address social causes like health care, addiction, climate change, job creation, and post-COVID recovery. His proposed methods gen- erally take the form of tax incentives and cash infusions rather than federal programs, which gives the big-spending platform a conserva- tive hue. It is tempting – almost addictive, even - to focus too heavily on national polls throughout a campaign. All of the major polling firms release fresh data regularly and, though they don’t all tell quite the same story, they are all indicating an upward swing for the Conserva- tives and the NDP, at the expense of the Liberals. Of course, polls are just polls: they are temperature checks at specific moments during the campaign. They are not votes. And when we vote, it is not via national referendum but rather in specific ridings – each one with its own independent outcome. So, regardless of what the polls say, what really matters is which candidate (and, indirectly, which party) comes first in each of the 338 ridings. When Trudeau called the elec- THE LAST WORD THE ELECTION NO ONE WANTED BY LORI TURNBULL