Canadian Government Executive - Volume 27 - Issue 04

22 / Canadian Government Executive // July/August 2021 tion, he knew which ridings he had to flip to maximize his chances at a majority, which ridings would likely go Liberal again, and which would likely not. Even if Trudeau does not do as well as was once ex- pected, it is very possible that O’Toole and the Conservatives could win the popular vote but not win a plurality of seats. That’s exactly what happened in 2019. But, what if Trudeau’s gamble doesn’t pay off? What if, despite the federal government’s extraordinary efforts to manage the pub- lic health and economic implications of COVID-19 over the past 18 months, the voters do not reward the Liberals as heftily as they had expected? If the results in Nova Scotia’s election are any indication, voters are looking forward rather than backward, with no sense of obligation to return the incumbent. At this point, a majority Liberal government remains possible but is looking less and less probable. A return of the minority government seems a safer bet, particularly given the Liberals’ popularity in vote-rich Ontario and its continued dominance in Atlantic Canada, but a plurality of seats for the Con- servatives could certainly happen. Either of these scenarios would present its own set of difficult choices. In 2019, when his government was reduced to a minority, Trudeau took to the podium with the sort of triumphant confidence that would suggest that he had kept his majority after all. It would be harder for him to do the same this time. After all, he made the deci- sion to go to election when his minority government was completely secure due to the support pledged by Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. There was no risk of losing confidence; the Liberals simply wanted a majority. Anything less will seem a loss for them even if they hold onto a plurality of seats. This outcome would undermine Trudeau’s leadership and, given that it would be a third term for him as prime minister, would trigger wider and more public conversations about his eventual successor. If he does not win a plurality of seats, he still has the first right to meet the House to determine whether he holds its confidence. At that point, the ball would presumably be in Singh’s court: he’d decide whether to continue in support of the Liberals or to work with the Conservatives to defeat Trudeau and form a new government. One thing is for certain: absolutely no one would want yet another election, so the parties will have to accept whatever outcome this one delivers and find a way forward for at least a couple of years. Dr. Lori Turnbull is the Director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University and the deputy editor of Canadian Government Executive. THE LAST WORD When Trudeau called the election, he knew which ridings he had to flip to maximize his chances at a majority, which ridings would likely go Liberal again, and which would likely not. Even if Trudeau does not do as well as was once expected, it is very possible that O’Toole and the Conservatives could win the popular vote but not win a plurality of seats. That’s exactly what happened in 2019. Vancouver. 2021-08-18. Photo: PMO