Canadian Government Executive - Volume 27 - Issue 05

30 / Canadian Government Executive // September/October 2021 with the NDP? And how could Jagmeet Singh refute accusations of selling out to the Liberal agenda? Even in a coalition, there would be a power dynamic between the Liberals and the NDP. There is only one Prime Minister, and it is around this individual that power resides; the NDP party would appear to be along for the ride and would lose its ability to hold the government to account. Third, a coalition is just not necessary. There is no threat to the Liberal government’s continuity apart from the Liberals them- selves. Whether this Parliament survives for three years will depend on whether the Prime Minister can resist the temptation to, once again, call an early election in search of a majority. The NDP has no reason to want a premature election. Their popularity seems to be stuck at under 20 per cent over the past three elections and it is not clear what, if anything, will improve their prospects. We might see a leadership change if party members feel that having someone else at the helm could make them more competitive, particularly in ur- ban ridings where NDP candidates did well but did not come first. Now, just because coalition government is very unlikely does not mean that there is anything wrong or illegitimate about a coali- tion in a parliamentary system. Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, who is preoccupied with serious challenges to his leadership from both within and outside the party caucus, has embraced rumours of a potential Liberal-NDP coalition as a way of distracting people from the Conservatives’ internal problems. His rhetoric is meant to remind people of a period of intense political drama back in 2008, when the Liberals and the NDP were actively contemplating a coali- tion. The circumstances were different then in that the government stood a very real chance of being defeated on a specific budget-re- lated item that the opposition parties were willing to unite over. Though the current situation is nothing like that, O’Toole is hoping to sow voter suspicion and distrust over the illegitimacy of a coali- tion that neither the Liberals nor the NDP campaigned on. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in his third term and, regard- less of whether he pursues a fourth, he is facing pressure to make concrete progress on the complex policy files that could frame his legacy, including climate change, reconciliation, and the affordable housing crisis. The NDP will, no doubt, continue to act as a partner for the Liberals, but there will be nothing formal about it. Dr. Lori Turnbull is the Director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University and the deputy editor of Canadian Government Executive. THE LAST WORD Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in his third term and, regardless of whether he pursues a fourth, he is facing pressure to make concrete progress on the complex policy files that could frame his legacy, including climate change, reconciliation, and the affordable housing crisis. Prime Minister Trudeau, Ministers Hussen and Alghabra, and MP Khera make a housing announcement,July 19, 2021, Brampton, Ontario. Photo: by Adam Scotti (PMO)