30 / Canadian Government Executive // January/February 2022 THE LAST WORD This is the third such exercise for the Conservatives since Stephen Harper stepped away in 2015 and Rona Ambrose took the reins as interim leader. This “revolving door” situation cannot be attributed simply to the actions or omissions of the leaders themselves; rather, it speaks to the existential turmoil that grips the party, making it very difficult to choose a leader who will meet the expectations of caucus members and the party at large (more on this later). Both Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole were shown the door within months of failing to beat Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in the elections of 2019 and 2021 respectively. What lessons can current leadership candidates learn from the paths of their predecessors? Is history bound to repeat itself and doom the next leader to the same fate? Or, can a new leader turn the party around? The deep divisions within the party are well known and are woven into the party’s history. The Conservative Party came into existence in 2003, when Canadian Alliance leader Stephen Harper and Progressive Conservative leader Peter MacKay made a deal to bring the two right-of-centre parties together into one. The logic was simple: as long as the right was divided, the Liberals would remain in power. The only way to win was to join forces and stop splitting the vote. Harper became the party’s leader in 2004 and Prime Minister in 2006, winning a minority government against a Liberal Party that was deeply scarred following the revelation of the “sponsorship scandal.” He formed two more governments, the last of them a majority, by holding together a party of factions. Once the Harper Conservatives were defeated in 2015, the coalition of factions weakened, and it is no longer clear what the party stands for or what conservative values really mean in the current political context. The lack of a centre of gravity in the party is palpable, which has complicated the lives of the two people who have tried to lead it since Harper resigned. Further, not only is there a disconnect between the various brands of conservatism within the party, there is also a disconnect among Conservative supporters with respect to what they want from their leadership. Some Conservatives want a leader who is a “true blue” Conservative, whatever that means to them, while others want a leader who can win a general election and form a government. These two objectives do not necessarily match up. While the Conservatives managed to win the popular vote both in 2019 and in 2021, it was not enough to unseat the Liberals in either case. Scheer was criticized for alienating voters by being too socially conservative, while O’Toole was pushed out for having swung too close to the centre with an election platform that struck many conservatives as being far too close to that of Justin Trudeau. In a world where it seems like the leader appears to be damned either way, what approach should the next leader follow to avoid a similar fate? One thing seems to be clear: a leader who does not win the election, for whatever reason, will quickly be shown the door. So, the only way to avoid the revolving door syndrome in the future is to use the leadership contest to choose a leader who has a real chance of winning the next election. Now that Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals are on their third term, voter fatigue with the status quo is more likely to be a factor. The Conservatives have a real shot if they can keep their house in order. At the time of writing, MPs Pierre Poilievre and Leslyn Lewis have announced their intent to run, Jean Charest is likely to do the same any minute, and Patrick Brown is bound to jump in too. The “ballot question” at hand is not just who will win the leadership, but also what kind of conservatism (read: which factions of the party) will most heavily inform the direction of the party going forward. The ballot will be ranked, which means that the second and subsequent preferences of party members will matter no matter who the frontrunner is. The winning candidate will be the one with the deepest and broadest appeal to the members of the party who sign up to vote for the leadership. Time will tell whether this appeal will extend more broadly outside the party’s membership. Dr. Lori Turnbull is the Director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University and the deputy editor of Canadian Government Executive. THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA IS KICKING OFF A NEW LEADERSHIP SELECTION CONTEST BY LORI TURNBULL
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