October/November 2022 // Canadian Government Executive / 7 CANADIAN POLITICS Yes, we just had an election a year ago and, in March 2022, the governing Liberals secured a “supply and confidence agreement” with the NDP that is intended to keep them in power until the fixed election date of October 20, 2025. The Conservatives just finished a leadership race that selected frontrunner Pierre Poilievre as the winner. In theory the next three years should be a window of relative stability, an opportunity to get things done, or at least to wrestle with the big challenges of the day. Nevertheless, it isn’t too early to cast an eye to the far horizon and the scenarios for the period just before and just after the next federal election. About a year from now this kind of forecasting will move from providing filler for political pundits to serious planning by a myriad of associations and lobbyists, and by teams within the public service who think about being ready for the next mandate. What follows is a scan of eight main scenarios. It doesn’t worry about who the leaders are, nor does it attempt to weigh all the factors that will shape the election outcome. For example, where will the economy be in 2025? Will the pandemic have settled into something less malevolent or come roaring back with new variants? Will Donald Trump be back in the White House? How did the war in Ukraine turn out? Rather, it is a look at the outcomes and their implications for governing. Spoiler alert: it doesn’t look promising. The least likely scenarios are a four-year window of stability and there is a good chance of a period of considerable turbulence. Canada may be running the rapids from 2024 to 2026 with lurches in policy and priorities and political leaders who focus on week-to-week survival. The following doesn’t attempt to assign probabilities to each scenario. I leave that to you. 1) TRUDEAU 4.0 Justin Trudeau revives his party’s flagging poll numbers and with a bit of fortune in close races achieves a fourth mandate – a slim majority, or close enough that he can govern without being beholden to one other party, as he did in his second mandate. The issue of succession moves to the window around 2028 and the incumbent government embarks on another cycle of governing. 2) NEW SHADE OF RED Justin Trudeau steps down in 2024 and his successor as leader is able to secure that fourth mandate – a rare feat but not unknown. Kathleen Wynne won Ontario after three terms by Dalton McGuinty. John Turner and Kim Campbell couldn’t pull this off. As we saw when Paul Martin followed Jean Chretien in 2003, the new Liberal PM may be anxious to demonstrate differentiation rather than continuity in the lead up to 2025. Like Paul Martin’s, the new Liberal government may last only a couple of years, leading to another election in 2027. 3) DEEP BLUE Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is able to keep the factions in his party aligned, minimize defections, keep Max Bernier’s Peoples Party in check, and catch a wave of “time for a change”. This is more or less similar to Mulroney’s victory in 1984, Chretien’s in 1993, and Trudeau’s in 2015. The main countervailing forces to a Conservative majority would be the table of 13 Premiers and the Senate, which will be dominated by Trudeau appointees. For reference, look up Brian Mulroney’s appointment of eight extraordinary Senators in September 1990 in order to pass sales tax reform for a reminder of past confrontations. For the political scientists, there are two variants of this - one where the Liberals are soundly rejected, as the Conservatives were in 1993 and the Liberals in 2011. The NDP becomes the leading Opposition Party, with implications for post 2025 politics. – and a second where the Liberals What follows is a scan of eight main scenarios. It doesn’t worry about who the leaders are, nor does it attempt to weigh all the factors that will shape the election outcome. For example, where will the economy be in 2025?
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NDI0Mzg=