Spring 2023 // Canadian Government Executive / 9 CANADIAN POLITICS that. He doesn’t have to have everybody come to the table. There’s a lot of pressure on the provinces to take the money and the strings that go with it because people are so afraid that the health care system is going to go under. It’s going to be, politically, very difficult for a premier to explain why there was money on the table and they left it there because they didn’t like the terms. Q: What would happen if they didn’t go for it? What would be the impact? I think what’s probably going to happen is that you’re going to see agreement on the bump to the Canada health transfer in exchange for best practices and data collection. I think that’s an easy one. I think the provinces will go for that even if they huff and puff and say that the federal government should not be putting strings attached to health care money. Where you’re going to see the back and forth in a critical way is going to be the bilateral exchanges between the federal government and the provincial governments. There, you’ll see premiers walking out of the room, being upset about what they got, and that could be worthwhile for them, not only politically, but financially, if they show the Prime Minister that they’re going to be pushed around. On the other hand, if the Prime Minister is saying, look, we’ve got money in our hand here and you can come and get it if you do these reasonable things, then that puts some weight behind the Prime Minister’s position that they’re offering reasonable parameters in exchange for a significant transfer of funds, but of course the provinces will say it’s not enough. So, I think I think you’ll see widespread consensus on the Canada health transfer increase and the data collection strings that go with it. I think we’ll see the breakdown on the bilateral. Q: Governments don’t usually plan in 10-year cycles. So, is this deal going to last even if the government’s change hands? I think from a federal perspective, it’s interesting how the other parties are circling around this. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives don’t want to give the Prime Minister any credit for anything. They come out and say, look, this isn’t that much money. You haven’t given the provinces what they asked for. But when we form a government, we’ll hold on to this and we’ll honor these commitments. Therefore, they’re taking the wind out of Trudeau’s sails and saying we’ll do this. It’s not that much to begin with and we’ll follow it up. They’re not saying they’ll give anymore. They’re saying, sure, we’ll hold on to this, no problem. In other words, if you’re thinking about voting for Trudeau because you’re afraid to lose this package, don’t worry. We’re fine. But over a 10-year cycle with 10 provinces in it, all of them on different electoral cycles, those are a lot of variables. That’s a lot to manage. Over time, are the feds in? Yes. Are all 10 provinces going to stay in, even if they’re in now? Probably not. You’re going to see a lot of fluctuation as governments change hands. The first test of it all is going to be Daniel Smith going to the vote in Alberta in May, because Rachel Notley is a much more obvious partner for the Liberals. They might be thinking, look, if Danielle Smith wants to blow this up, go ahead. If Danielle Smith wants to go tell Alberta that she’s leaving federal money for health care on the table after they have been trounced by COVID, that might be something that’s really good for Rachel Notley on the campaign trail because she’d find a way to take the money. It might be really good politics in the end. Q: Let’s look at some timelines. What are the milestones that we should be watching for that are going to be critical to this? The federal government will issue a budget in the spring that will show some chunk of this. We’ll get some sense at least of the Canada health transfer aspect of it and maybe even more than that. Where they want to break down in terms of the provincial negotiations, you know, provinces are going to want to be able to put that money in their budgets fairly expediently, I would think. They’re not going to want to wait forever. On the one hand, a province might want to go back and forth a couple of rounds with the Prime Minister to make sure the feds know they’re not just going to take the first crappy offer you give us. The rules of negotiation apply here as they would in any other circumstance. However, a province is also keen to get the money in pocket, so you don’t want to dance around too long. I would say, over the next few months we might see some provinces who are inclined to participate and be on board. But, if I was a smaller Province, and I am from a smaller province, I’m from Nova Scotia, I would not be in a rush to side. I would hang back and see what Doug Ford gets and see what Legault gets and then say, “I’d like a piece of that, and our province is a smaller population, so surely if you can provide that benefit for them, you could provide it for us.” If I was a small province, I would hang back and see which way the wind is blowing.” There are some provincial premiers like Doug Ford, for example, who is in a very powerful position because he won a big majority government within the last year and he’s also the premier of the largest province with the largest population.
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