FUTURE TEST YOUR POLICY AND PROGRAM: AN ANTICIPATORY APPROACH BY JONATHAN CALOF 16 / Canadian Government Executive // Winter 2023 FUTURE TEST APPROACH Future test involves techniques that provide a structured approach for examining policy, program and proposals from the perspective of its ability to succeed based on an external environmental perspective. For purposes of brevity, the article will use the word program to mean program, policy or legislation. The article is based on thirty years experience using the techniques discussed in this article to help Federal governments in several countries in the world including Canada, several provincial governments and municipal governments to develop, implement and then monitor new programs. Considerable research is done today to create these programs: industry consultation is frequently done; econometric modeling and a arrange of other techniques. Future test is an additional technique (actually techniques) that recognize that for the program to succeed from a future test perspective two questions need to be addressed: 1) Will the program be used as intended? For the program to succeed, it must be used by the people/groups that it targets in the way it was envisioned. For a small business investment program that I was involved with, venture capital firms would have to use the credit and small businesses would have to accept funding from venture capital firms. In the case of a nanotechnology program that I helped to advise, the companies in that industry are the ones who will have to apply for and use the funds for and hopefully do the research envisioned by the program. Governments create programs but they can’t control who decides to use it and how they use it. So future test asks the question, when the program is launched will the people intended to use it, use it and will they use it in the way it was intended. 2) When the program is actioned will the desired outcome make sense any more? It takes time to create and implement a Jonathan Calof, UNESCO Professor, co-chair anticipatory systems for innovation and new ventures, University of New Brunswick and Full Professor Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa calof@telfer.uottawa.ca
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