18 / Canadian Government Executive // Winter 2023 FUTURE TEST APPROACH Looked a slightly different way future test at this stage asks the question are the decisions that the intended targets of the program making suggest that the program outcomes will be realized. If not, then the program can be altered at an early point. proposed program fit then? Will what is proposed today lead to the appropriate outcome when the intended results of the program are finally realized. Techniques such as horizon scanning, scenarios, road maps are examples of techniques used for this purpose. For a program designed to encourage a specific type of cleantech development we had to look at what other countries were doing in this industry and what they were developing. The question being is what we are supporting going to lead to the countries companies being in front of the industry or trailing what is already being developed. Sometimes future test includes used a futures literacy approach to help envision distant futures and distant desired, futures. Predicting 10 to 20 years is not possible but, in a program, I did with a small town they envisioned what they would like to look like in 10 years (futures literacy). We then looked at what was required to realize that future (timelining approach) which led to the identification of decisions that needed to be made now and actioned so that the future vision could be realized. Market insight was used to identify what needed to be done to successfully action the decisions (profiling, market assessment and other techniques). In this example town leadership realized that one of the major factors limiting attraction of business to the town was the poor state of the hospital. This led to using competitive intelligence/market insight, to learn about the hospital approval process and then profile those that would be responsible for making the decision. The result of actioning what future test identified was that the leadership applied to the province for the new hospital and it was successful. The hospital proposal was approved and implemented. Along with other actions taken by the group the actual future ten years later was very close to the one desired. Future test past implementation Predicting how people will react to programs and trying to determine what future environment will look like is fraught with much uncertainty. Over time, things change and that can affect the likelihood of program success. The idea of future test past implementation is to continually monitoring for signs that: 1) The program is being used or will be used as intended 2) That the desired outcome of the program still makes sense There is a technique in competitive intelligence called timelining, foresight has a similar technique called back-casting. The essence of both is that long before the actual event occurs, there will be signs that you can follow that will let you know if the event will happen. While we tend to focus on the endpoint, for example that the appropriate nanotechnology products are being commercialized, we know that several activities have to occur before that, for example, doing the research, before that hiring the appropriate research staff, before that applying for the funds, before that exploration activities. These are just a few of the activities that you will find on a timeline. Under a timeline/back casting future test approach is do the “signs” (information) that we can pick up on for each step of the timeline suggest that the eventual outcome (the desired nanotechnology products) will be what was intended. The earlier you can figure this out the quicker corrective action can be taken. Looked a slightly different way future test at this stage asks the question are the decisions that the intended targets of the program making suggest that the program outcomes will be realized. If not, then the program can be altered at an early point. For the nanotechnology program we sat down with both companies in the industry and government and drew out the timeline.
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