SPRING 2024 // Canadian Government Executive / 13 CGE LEADERSHIP SERIES going to be an election until October 2025, but now that I said that I’m sure that I’ll be proven wrong. But we can use that as a possible date. And I think it’s a likely date, given the circumstance with the confidence and supply agreement between the Liberals and New Democrats. There is security for the Liberal government, even though they’re in a minority. My guess is that they are not in a rush to go to election anytime soon. There seems to be enough in this agreement with the NDP to keep them going. I never want to jump the gun and make assumptions about how Canadians will vote. But if one reads the polls, it looks like we are probably going to be heading towards some kind of change in government. So, without even presupposing that, I want to get your thoughts, Michael. What does it look like when a government is heading towards an election where they are going to be asking for a fourth term, which governments typically don’t get? What are the possibilities here? What is going through the minds of public servants who are advising and supporting a government that is in the last part of its third term? MICHAEL WERNICK: Thanks for the invitation. I’ll put in a plug for my book if you don’t mind. On some of this, I think I’ll leave some of the political science to you. There’s an important principle that we only have one government at a time and the main role of the public service in the federal government or any provincial government for that matter, is to deliver the programs and services and provide advice to the government until the next one is sworn in. So, this will play out in more or less three acts. Governments behind in the polls with a high probability of defeat creates certain dynamics. And that’s the sort of medium-term transition planning that we can delve into. The second act is the actual election period. Obviously campaigns matter and there will be swings in the polls and different senses of who’s going to win. And people will be putting out seats projections and issues around the legitimacy of coalitions. And the third act is the pure transition, the handoff of power for one democratically elected group to another. And we do that reasonably well and quickly in Canada, but it will certainly raise a whole bunch of challenges for parts of the public service. My second theme would be that for most of the federal public service, this doesn’t really matter. They come in and deliver their programs, services, transactions, regulations and so on. And until a new government has a major change in machinery or policy, they just keep calm and carry on. So, transition really affects a narrow slice. LORI TURNBULL: It’s such an interesting thing because I think it’s a really important point that the public service is the thing that stays the same. It’s one of the reasons why Canada is so good at transition, because we have this permanent public service that continues to keep everything going. I want to go through this chronology you’ve put forward for us. How does the public service prepare? Because there are some countries where it is normal for some people “For many political purposes, they will deploy a piece of legislation and say, “Look at this, if you vote for the other guys, it might get taken away.” It’s kind of like leaving the table the way you want it when you call the election.” — Michael Wernick
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