UNCERTAIN AND HIGH STAKES WORLD I have often heard Deputy Ministers say that we are in a ‘no surprises’ environment (particularly during election times!). The implicit instruction is that it is our job to keep it that way, to be in control and on top of what is going on. However, is it even possible to live up to such a standard? And if it isn’t, then what can we as managers and leaders do about it? Before we can answer these questions, it is helpful to understand what is possible and why. Unfortunately, traditional theories about management are not necessarily helpful. They implicitly assume that we can control or determine what is going on and thus prevent nasty surprises. That we can, in effect, predict the future. A different perspective, however, has recently emerged from research into the complexity sciences. This approach also incorporates what the social BY SARA FILBEE GOVERNING DIGITALLY 10 / Canadian Government Executive // WINTER 2025 AVOIDING SURPRISES IN AN sciences tell us about how individuals and groups interact and react during times of change and is the subject of my recent book, Managing in Complexity: How Our Fears of Uncertainty Can Hurt Us and What To Do About It. This theory about managing in complexity is based upon the work of Ralph Stacey, an econometrician and PhD graduate from the London School of Economics, and his colleagues at the University of Hertfordshire in England. Stacey built a career studying and teaching econometrics models as a way of understanding what was happening so that he could plan effectively. However, when he moved over to industry, he became disillusioned with the ability of sophisticated models to make accurate predictions. Rejoining academia he tried to make sense of this by studying complexity science, and
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