I think the premiers are going to want to avoid any circumstance where sectors of the economy are shaken, even for a short time, by a tariff situation. — Lori Turnbull WINTER 2025 // Canadian Government Executive / 27 anced and strategic. There are ads running in the U.S., promoting trade with Ontario, which I think is good. But you have Premier Smith in Alberta, who said this doesn’t affect them because there are no tariffs on pipelines. It’s like this autonomous dynamic with some premiers, particularly in Quebec, Alberta, and maybe Saskatchewan, doing their own thing. Sort of a small-s sovereignty. That’s a different dynamic this time, isn’t it? Turnbull: Yes, absolutely. And with Ford, the auto sector in Ontario is such a central part of the integrated supply chain. They’ll have different aspects to manage if there’s a tariff. Even if not a tariff, something else could come up. Even if Trudeau talks Trump down on the tariff or reduces it, that doesn’t mean everything is fine now and there’s nothing else to worry about. I also think it’s interesting what Poilievre said today about putting the pressure on Trudeau rather than on Trump. He’s trying to push Trudeau to change aspects of the Canadian economy to make us less vulnerable to the U.S. So he’s saying Trudeau has to remove any kind of tax increase, deal with softwood lumber tariffs, all sorts of things to frame it as Trudeau’s fault. McLaughlin: That raises two things I wanted to ask you about. One: how does this affect the opposition leader, and prime ministerin-waiting if we can call Poilievre that? His strategy for dealing with this is to blame it all on Trudeau while preparing for government. He’ll inherit whatever comes out of this. And second: as you rightly point out, the provinces’ economic interests vary. The country’s economy is different by region and other factors. So isn’t there a broader, longerterm issue about Canada becoming more economically resilient in the face of American protectionism and “America first” policies, regardless of this particular tariff threat? There’s both a political and an economic question. In the short term, this is politics for Poilievre, but in the longer term, it’s about economic impact and strategy for Canada. Turnbull: Definitely, and I think these things are linked. For Poilievre, he likely sees himself as the Prime Minister-in-waiting, and unless all the polls are wrong, he probably is. The next election, whenever it happens, is likely within a year. Part of the difficulty for Trudeau is that there’s a sense of a limited runway. It’s interesting because he doesn’t come across as a lame duck, but there’s a sense of finite time. He has to prove himself now, but even if he does something good, he might still be handing the reins to Poilievre within the year. Poilievre wants to keep the focus on Trudeau and what Trudeau can do for Canada’s economy, highlighting Trudeau’s shortcomings and suggesting that current policies caused Trump’s concerns in the first place. McLaughlin: Yep, we saw that on the weekend. Poilievre has a new tagline: “fix the border.” It’s his way of blaming Trudeau’s government, but also playing into issues around borders. We want open borders for trade, but we want closed borders for drugs and crime. Turnbull: Yes, it dovetails with what Conservatives have always said about Trudeau not managing immigration or crime well. Look at all the problems we have. But they stop short—shorter than Danielle Smith— of saying they agree with President-elect Trump, because they don’t want to be in the Trump camp. He’s trying to be careful and clever, of course. McLaughlin: I think you’re right. He has to find that balance—critiquing Trudeau while not agreeing with Trump. Canadians like trade, but we also like being Canadian. Turnbull: And Poilievre probably has his own plans if he becomes Prime Minister. For example, he’s got an MP who’s JD Vance’s best friend. How many conversations are happening across the border already, setting up relationships so Poilievre can pick up where Trudeau leaves off? As for the second question, Poilievre seems to want to keep the U.S. as Canada’s major trading partner and downplay the idea of diversification. He treats the relationship with the U.S. as inevitable and economically necessary, rather than looking elsewhere to protect ourselves from American protectionism. McLaughlin: That’s a fair point. We saw a sort of pivot under Trudeau at one point, looking toward China or the Indo-Pacific. Historically, under the first Trudeau, there was the “Third Option” policy to diversify trade away from the U.S. But since Mulroney in 1984 and free trade in 1988, every Prime Minister has been a booster of free trade with the U.S. If Poilievre doubles down on the U.S. relationship, he might have to look internally at our own economic issues—productivity, investment, GDP per capita. We need more income and wealth to pay for public services for an aging population. So maybe strengthening our internal economic engine is the answer, rather than looking for a shiny new trading partner elsewhere. Turnbull: I remember Chrystia Freeland giving a speech about values-based trade, trading with democracies that share our values. But a lot has happened since then, and a lot will happen in the next couple of years. I suspect you and I will be talking about this issue a lot more in future podcasts. McLaughlin: Absolutely. Any government—Poilievre’s or Trudeau’s if he pulls off a miracle—is going to have to deal with this. That means changes in how government operates, too. We’ll talk about that in future episodes because it’s not just about changing the economy. We know we need a more efficient, effective government, and that’ll be on the agenda for whoever ends up in power. JONES: You’ve been listening to Gov Gurus, produced by Canadian Government Executive Media. I’d like to thank our special guests today, Lori Turnbull, who is Editor-in-Chief of Canadian Government Executive, and I’d also like to thank former deputy minister and Executive Editor of Canadian Government Executive, David McLaughlin. Thank you so much. Turnbull: Thanks for having us. McLaughlin: Thank you. GOV GURUS
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