30 / Canadian Government Executive // WINTER 2025 POLICY HORIZONS Four disruptions make it to both categories: People cannot tell what is true and what is not. The information ecosystem is flooded with human- and Artificial Intelligence (AI)- generated content. Mis- and disinformation make it almost impossible to know what is fake or real. It is much harder to know what or who to trust. on the Horizon 2024 Report Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse. There is an irreversible loss of biodiversity and a collapse of ecosystems due to habitat destruction, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change. Emergency response is overwhelmed. Extreme weather events such as fires, floods, tornados, and hurricanes are frequent and severe. The world is in a perpetual state of emergency, and unable to respond adequately and sustainably. Cyberattacks disable basic infrastructure. Interruptions to essential services such as the Internet, electricity, transportation, water, and food supply systems are common due to regular cyberattacks, disrupting everyday life. The report also reminds readers that disruptions rarely occur in isolation. Their very interconnectedness can have cascade effects that lead to further disruptions, some anticipated some not. For example, if “basic needs go unmet” in society, this could lead to “democratic systems breakdown”. If “people cannot tell what is true or what is not”, this can lead to “values-based clashes in society” and “Canadian national unity unravels”. Exercises such as this report can benefit decision-makers by helping them assess what might be coming to Canada and whether and how we should prepare for it. None is guaranteed to occur, as the report notes, but the disruptions listed are at least “plausible” in their judgment. Read the full report here by Policy Horizons Canada and judge for yourself. https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/ disruptions/index.shtml People cannot tell what is true and what is not Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse People cannot afford to live on their own Biodata is widely monetized Billionaires run the world Downward social mobility is the norm Emergency response is overwhelmed Mental health is in crisis Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure Artificial Intelligence runs wild World war breaks out Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse Healthcare systems collapse Civil war erupts in the United States Emergency response is overwhelmed Basic needs go unmet Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure People cannot tell what is true and what is not Democratic systems breakdown Vital natural resources are scarce Top 10 most likely disruptions Top 10 highest impact disruptions TOP 10 DISRUPTIONS BY LIKELIHOOD AND IMPACT Figure 3 Figure 3 shows two top 10 lists: the top 10 disruptions based on likelihood, and the top 10 disruptions based on impact, according to the survey responses. 11 The figure below from the report sets out the top ten most likely disruptions and the top ten highest impact disruptions:
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