Canadian Government Executive - Volume 31 - Issue 1

Photo: Parliament of Canada, Jonathon Harrington. 38 / Canadian Government Executive // WINTER 2025 THE LAST WORD 1. Do nothing. With fresh new cabinet ministers appointed, Trudeau could meet the House, which is set to resume proceedings on January 27th. Singh and the NDP have indicated that they will not support the government, and the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois surely will not either. So, the Prime Minister could try to strategically avoid non-confidence votes in the House, which they could do for a while because the government has many levers at its disposal to drag out procedure, but he’d have the spectacle of all three opposition leaders telling the press every day that the prime minister lacks the confidence of the House. This would be a nightmare and would significantly undermine Trudeau in his negotiations with Donald Trump, who will be back in the White House on January 20th. So, sticking his head in the sand and pretending nothing is happening is not tenable. 2. Prorogue Parliament. Prorogation is a pause in parliamentary proceedings. This would buy Trudeau some time, either to get a break from all the chaos or to quit and have the Liberals choose a new leader. If he prorogues and does not quit, the uproar from opposition leaders – as well as others who want to see Trudeau gone – would be deafening. If he prorogues to quit and choose a new leader, that would be less objectionable from a democratic perspective. However, it would plunge the Liberals into a leadership race at the same time as Trump takes office in the U.S. He’s threatened to place 25% tariffs on everything coming into the United States from Canada – and on his first day in office, no less. So, a leadership process for the Liberals would mean that the country was looking for a leader at a time of economic shock and a need for hard negotiations with our closest trading partner. While the Liberals chose a leader, Dominic LeBlanc, now finance minister, would be someone who could potentially move into the role of prime minister and take on the responsibility of negotiating with Trump (unless he has leadership aspirations himself). He’s got the experience, the political acumen, and he’s already playing a lead role on the Canada-U.S. file. 3. Call an election. Prime Minister Trudeau might decide to call an election before the return of Parliament, which would put the question of his leadership to the public rather than to Parliament. His public approval ratings would suggest that this would not end well for him. Abacus Data reports that only 19% of Canadians want Trudeau to stay on as prime minister. There is no question that Trudeau is an effective campaigner and has beat tough odds before. But, there is a good chance that, this time, it’s different. He has been leader for over 11 years and prime minister for over nine years. Voter fatigue is normal for anyone in his position. But he seems bound and determined to do battle with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. So, even though polling numbers suggest that election results could be disastrous for the Liberals, this could be the option he takes. Time will tell what Prime Minister Trudeau’s path will be. Whatever he decides will be a defining feature of his legacy. Dr. Lori Turnbull is the Director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University and the deputy editor of Canadian Government Executive. Prorogation is a pause in parliamentary proceedings. This would buy Trudeau some time, either to get a break from all the chaos or to quit and have the Liberals choose a new leader. If he prorogues and does not quit, the uproar from opposition leaders – as well as others who want to see Trudeau gone – would be deafening.

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