Canadian Government Executive - Volume 22 - Issue 7

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22 / Canadian Government Executive // September 2016
Middle Management John Wilkins
with no casualties, said later about his life-or-death decision: “…
for 42 years I’ve been making small, regular deposits in this bank
of experience, education, and training. And on that day the bal-
ance was sufficient so that I could make a very large withdrawal.”
Managing risk
The long view is to mitigate the potency of uncertainty by manag-
ing the realities of risk. Middle managers must collaborate to pin-
point, assess, and control risks. Sometimes they get so engrossed
in day-to-day operations that they forget critical preventative and
contingent activities.
Managers can avoid or minimize risk in six ways:
1. Grow replacements. Managers cannot be promoted with as-
surance until replaced by someone who can do the job. Top
management cannot let succession planning languish, or the
fate of the organization hangs in the balance. Star performers
need recognition and development.
2. Anticipate problems. Most problems simmer on the back
burner before boiling over. Managers need to scan the horizon
and their instruments to ensure that they do not get slammed
by potential problems. They also need to be ready for unavoid-
able problems.
3. Exploit opportunities. Most managers know what is wrong,
but they become oblivious to opportunities waiting to be
seized. More than positive or negative thinking, they need to
focus altogether on the good and bad and on the opportunistic
and problematic.
4. Pre-empt changes. Sustainable results depend upon adapt-
ing quickly in response to changes in citizen needs and the
public interest. Changing just to keep up means losing the
comparative advantage of changing sooner. Waiting until the
last moment rarely leaves room to maneuver.
5. Stay relevant. Relevancy is about being current and closely
connected to colleagues, citizens, and stakeholders. Managers
are deemed relevant when others they lead or serve believe
their work matters to achieving results. They show they care
in word and deed.
6. Take care. Some managers neglect self-care as selfish. Model-
ling expectations, giving support, and leading the way require
managers at the top of their game – mentally, emotionally,
physically. Burnt-out leaders burn out followers when truly
important things are not done consistently well.
When storms brew, sometimes the best we can do is plan for the
worst and hope for the best. Rainbows after a storm are said to
be signs of divine providence. Protective care assures prudent
preparation and timely deliverance. Managing the consequences,
outcomes, and impact of risk requires commitment. Infusing in-
stitutions with a passion for public service is a duty of care.
John Wilkins is Executive in Residence: Public Management
at York University. He was a
career public servant and diplomat.
The world is fraught with uncertainty and risk, making
life difficult and worthwhile. What, for example, are the
chances of getting hit by a bus? The odds are estimated
to be one in 500,000 – very low indeed, catastrophic for
the one, slightly worse than 1:700,000 of being struck by lightning,
but scary compared with 1:11,500,000 of a shark attack.
In business management, the “bus factor” is a measure of team
capacity. It connotes the number of team members that can be
lost unexpectedly before a project collapses. Projects that share
knowledge are more resilient. The bus factor can be increased by
reducing complexity, documenting current process, and encourag-
ing cross-training.
Taking risks
Political pundits might say that public figures are more likely to
get thrown under the bus than hit by it. Good relations get sev-
ered when things become controversial or unpopular. Central
oversight bodies claw back the flexibility and capacity to manage
risk when trust is lost. Human error is often blamed.
In 1986, after five weather delays, the space shuttle Challenger
launched heavenward. Just 73 seconds later, system failure tore
the shuttle apart, and all seven crewmembers perished. The di-
saster was attributed to an O-ring seal known to have vulnerabili-
ties. The fatal mistake was ignoring vital precautions in the rush
toward a grand goal.
Ministers are preoccupied with political risks. Few public ser-
vants are able to put themselves in a minister’s shoes to fully ap-
preciate what is concerning or how to respond. The default is to
flag high-priority issues and to proffer platitudes as strategic advice.
Most middle managers encounter crisis. How they handle it is
a function of competence and nimble thinking. Meanwhile, the
public service is painted at once as overly ambitious, cautious,
rash, and risk averse. Taking risks is almost always about weigh-
ing the return on initiative against the fear of failure.
In 2009, a passenger plane made an emergency landing in New
York’s icy Hudson River. Captain Chesley Sullenberger (watch out
for the movie soon to be released!), who landed the plane safely
A Duty of Care: Risk Management
“… as much an accident as if he had been run over by a bus while crossing the street.”
— JOSEPH CONRAD (1907): THE SECRET AGENT