The effects of global population shifts and how it may be a good news story for Canada - Canadian Government Executive
InnovationsPolicy
August 9, 2018

The effects of global population shifts and how it may be a good news story for Canada

Studies have shown that the global population will begin to decline, reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape of the world. Author and journalist, John Ibbitson, talks about how this shift will promote innovation and why it is a good news story for Canada. Ibbitson will be a keynote speaker at the 2018 Public Sector Conference.

Here is the interview with John Ibbitson, that was conducted by CPA Canada.

Q. Global demographic studies by the United Nations project higher populations, with no decline in growth, however other studies project growth followed by a population decline. Would this decline in population affect Canada and what disruptions do you believe  would impact our public sector?

Canada’s population will not decline; it will continue to increase, thanks to robust immigration policies. Immigration now accounts for the main source of population growth in Canada. The population will, however age, due to low birth rates and longer lifespans. This will increasingly stress geriatric-care services. For example, one third of people over the age of 85 will develop Alzheimer’s, unless new preventative treatments are developed.

Q. Disruptions aside, how do you believe the global population decline would be a good news story for Canada?

Because Canada’s population will continue to increase as the populations of other countries decrease, our global influence will increase as well. By mid-century, for example, we could be more populous than Italy or Spain. More importantly, Canada’s model of robust immigration married to a deep tradition of multiculturalism offers a template for other societies seeking to reverse population decline.

Q. What recommendations do you have for those in the public service to prepare their organizations for the worker shortages to come?

Automation and out-sourcing will be critical to filling job shortages in both the public and private sectors. The federal government needs to become more robust in recruiting new Canadians to the public service. Policy and public funds will also have to take into account an aging society, though much of this is the responsibility of provincial governments. Foreign policy must emphasize that multiculturalism, rather than nationalism, is the best route to creating peaceful, tolerant societies.

Q. As immigration is projected to be Canada’s only source of population growth, how can Canada prepare for this reality?

We need to increase the intake of immigrants as much as the population will permit. This involves concerted efforts to educate the public on the benefits of immigration. Immigrants create jobs, fill job vacancies, consume goods and pay taxes, generating wealth and broadening the tax base. In the short term, an annual intake of one per cent of population should be the goal.

Q. As a political journalist, one of your areas of focus is Canada-U.S. relations. With the changing political and economic relationship between Canada and the U.S., where do you think the relationship is heading and what would be the biggest challenge for Canada?

Regardless of who succeeds President Trump, in 2020 or 2024, the consensus on globalization has been shattered. Both Democrats and Republicans now appear suspicious of the benefits of unfettered tariff-free trade. Both appear convinced that China is a strategic threat due to tariff manipulation and intellectual property threat. Canada must accept that American leadership in advancing the free movement of goods, services and people is at an end. For Canada, that means forging new links. I have argued that Canada should use its Atlantic (CETA) and Pacific (TPP) trading linkages to advance an Atlantic-Pacific Partnership, which we hope the United States would eventually join.

Q. Your keynote at the Public Sector Conference is about global demographic population trends. What can attendees look forward to in your session?

I’ll be explaining why Darrell Bricker and I side with demographers who believe that the United Nations population projections are wrong. I’ll explain the causes of declining fertility and why it is declining so rapidly in developing countries such as Brazil. And I’ll look at the environmental, economic and geo-political consequences of a world in which, by mid-century, there are fewer people every year.

To learn more about innovation in the public sector and the impact of CPA leadership in government, register for this year’s Public Sector Conference, which takes place in Ottawa from October 22-23, 2018.

 

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Studies have shown that the global population will begin to decline, reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape of the world. Author and journalist, John Ibbitson, talks about how this shift will promote innovation and why it is a good news story for Canada. Ibbitson will be a keynote speaker at the 2018 Public Sector Conference....
 
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Two weeks ago, CGE wrote about the selection of Toronto as a leading Intelligent Community, a recognition of its Prosperity Agenda and its innovations in technology and other sectors – despite the trials and tribulations of its mayor....
 
Despite the international media circus created by Mayor Rob Ford, Toronto has been named the 2014 Intelligent Community of the Year. The award was announced in June by the Intelligent Community Forum at the conclusion of the annual Intelligent Community Summit in New York. Related posts: Distinct leaders: The municipal chief administrative officer Uber faces insurance woes in Edmonton, launches preemptive PR move in TO Montreal’s Bixi pedals out of debt and into the global market...
 
A regulator’s job is to fulfill its mandate in the public interest. The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) has been using innovative ways to engage Canadians in public consultations. Related posts: CRTC oks Corus’ $2.65 billion purchase of Shaw CRTC kicks off hearing on Internet access Nunavut, Nunavik, rural areas decry slow, unreliable Internet service...
 
but what does this mean when plugged back into your starting premise (we overestimate short-term impact and under-estimate long-term impact)? To me it suggests that government needs to re-engage with communities with more than just social media campaigns. They need to find ways to literally bring people together and get them talking (and not necessarily...
 
Innovate Manitoba is a not-for-profit community-based organization established in 2012 to act as a catalyst for innovation and to help close the commercialization gap....
 
as articulated in Thaler and Sunstein’s book of the same name (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_(book)) Related posts: Leading the networked workplace Is change management in the public sector really different? Being an Employer of Choice...
 
or is this more or less a way to talk about those NMC members who have participated in workshops and activities on employee engagement? How does one get involved Related posts: Talking about performance 023 | Managers' Exchange 2016 - Interview with Executive Director of the National Manager's Communit... Enhancing business and personal lives...
 
Whether we are welcoming advanced technology into our homes, driving vehicles with more sophisticated safety and communications features, or taking advantage of new online services, innovation is an increasingly important measure of how well our modern economy is faring....
 
“Innovation” might be an overused buzzword in defence and security circles, but since the stand-up of the Canadian Innovation Commercialization Program (now Build in Canada Innovation Program) and the release of the Jenkins and Emerson reports, it has been central to the federal government’s message....
 
Ontario and Alberta have joined forces to encourage the development of research projects that will stimulate job growth, bring new products to market, and improve the products that already exist in both provinces....
 
For government to fulfill its mandate of serving citizens, considerable spending is continually required to support and improve current programs and services and to introduce new programs or services. Related posts: A possible counter to Canadian risk aversion The importance of thinking outside the box Enhancing business and personal lives...
 
The need to innovate has become so common a goal in government it has become a motherhood statement. However, the need to innovate is a real imperative that Alberta is making a priority, not only for its Ministry of Innovation and Advanced Education, but for the province as a whole....
 
While not all cities are created equal, great competition should bring out the best in them. More than ever cities are watching technology trends. Related posts: Data, public safety, and the economy Predictive analytics for smarter cities Smart City strategies...
 
It has long been postulated that tidy desks are more conducive to productivity in the workplace, and that an organized worker is a valuable asset to any employer. Worse, employees with messy desks are sometimes seen as lazy slobs by their co-workers. But a recent study…...
 
In “Public sector, disrupted”, a recent study published by Deloitte, a question is asked: why do organizations in the private sector offer higher quality services or products for a cheaper price, while organizations in the public sector do the exact opposite? Related posts: Preparing for the impact of disruptive technologies Adobe's Digital Government Assembly: A way forward The Future of Internal Audit...
 
We are only at the first phase of the Digital Age and our efforts require concerted action to develop the know-how to take advantage of the possibilities of this paradigm-shifting era....
 
In Smarter Information, Smarter Consumers, www.hbr.org, Richard H. Thaler and Will Tucker claim that the availability of information is changing consumer attitudes, and that government can learn a lesson from this....
 
A Saskatchewan team of geologists, physicists and palaeontologists is hunting for dinosaur DNA using a cutting-edge piece of equipment located in Saskatoon....
 
The judges are in place. The clock is ticking. The best in the world have come to Canada to compete. No, it’s not the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver. It’s Worldskills 2009 in Calgary....
 
At first glance, federal defence scientists focused on research supporting the Canadian Forces and geoscientists collecting scientific data on the Arctic seabed may seem like an unlikely pairing....
 
What is British Columbia doing to change its approach to scientific research and innovation as a result of the signals sent in the federal budget?...
 
In a knowledge-based global economy, continuous innovation is crucial to enable effective and efficient service delivery in the public sector and competitive advantage in the private....
 
There is no reason for Canada to be an innovation and productivity laggard. Governments can and should play a leadership role, and it is not all about spending…...
 
Saskatchewan’s Ministry of Environment is leading a new approach built on results-based regulations to enhance environmental protection while encouraging innovation....
 
Governments have long known that although across-the-board percentage cuts may meet fiscal targets, such cuts can harm ministries and departments for many years....
 
CGE Vol.13 No.4 April 2007 Education, creativity, research and innovation play a crucial role in Canadian society and Canada’s...
 
CGE Vol.14 No.3 March 2008 Innovation is one of those concepts talked about so often and yet realized so rarely that the word has...
 
CGE Vol. 14 No.5 May 2008 Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty spoke with editor-in-chief Paul Crookall, as part of our series on the relationship between political le...
 
Today, thanks largely to the internet, the kind of creativity and innovation that used to take place primarily within the confines of corporate walls now occurs across large, loosely connected networks of firms and individual entrepreneurs....
 
When William Eggers wrote his landmark book, Government 2.0, in 2005, he predicted that governments around the world would have to embrace the information age, abandoning industrial age management concepts of hierarchy, specializati...
 
What exactly is hunger and why is it an important global issue?...
 
En décembre 2008, la fonction publique de la Colombie-Britannique a lancé Spark, un site Web interne visant à susciter la collaboration constructive au sein de l’organisation....
 
La fonction publique de l’Ontario œuvre dans la lutte contre les incendies depuis la fin du 19e siècle....
 
The Ontario Public Service has been in the business of putting out fires – literally – since the late 19th century....
 
In December 2008, the BC Public Service launched Spark, an internal website for constructive collaboration within the organization....
 
Once seen as stable, even glacial, the public service is now in a constant state of flux, adapting to new business models and an economy that is a moving target....
 
D’abord vue comme stable, même figée, la fonction publique connaît maintenant des changements continus et s’adapte à de nouveaux modèles d’affaires ainsi qu’à une économie en constante évolution....
 
Au cours de ma longue expérience auprès de différents ministres d’allégeances politiques diverses, je n’en ai jamais rencontré un seul qui aurait voulu qu’on lui mente ou qui ne se souciait pas de l’int&e...
 
Le leadership au sein des organismes du secteur public est l’un des acquis les plus importants du Canada. L’Institut d’administration publique du Canada (IAPC) et Deloitte ont salué fin novembre ce qui se fait de mieux en la...
 
CGE Vol.13 No.8 October 2007 A modern public service is one that is relevant, flexible and effective in dealing successfully with...
 
Quote of the week “An innovative APS starts with individual public servants wanting to try new ideas.” — APS Innovation Action Plan Editor’s Corner...
 
Le plus souvent, toutefois, nous devons nous affairer activement à trouver une solution nouvelle....
 
Sometimes innovation happens serendipitously – a Eureka moment, when the answer drops out of the sky. But more often, we have to create a novel solution. And for that, like any craft, it can be helpful to have tools....
 
2012 has the potential to be an important year for Canadian science and innovation policy, one to be remembered for many years....
 
As the Ontario Public Service readies for its involvement this April in Creativity and Innovation We know that today’s employee, our clients and Ontarians are demanding change. They are looking for us to be accountable, transparent and they need us to be more effective and efficient with their tax dollars....
 
TED is a non-profit community devoted to the theme of “Ideas Worth Spreading.”...
 
Becoming an innovative organization takes more than a call to “be innovative” or an invitation to submit ideas. What are you doing to lead innovation on your teams?...
 
Thousands of other research projects in Canada have become a reality – in large part due to investments made by the Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI)....
 
Conducting a large number of detention reviews under difficult conditions and tight timeframes required leadership, a collaborative effort and support from all IRB personnel....
 
How can we increase productivity, build resilience and enhance quality of life in the rapidly changing 21st century?...
 
Innovation is critical and urgent as public servants continue to improve the quality and efficiency of public services while responding quickly to changing social and economic conditions....
 
To the reporters who’d gathered in the Alberta Legislature press room, the blue plastic bucket in reserved seating may have looked more like a janitorial oversight than the starring act of a new workplace safety ad....
 
Robert Louis Stevenson a déjà affirmé que « la politique est la seule profession où la formation n’est pas jugée indispensable ». Il avait tort....
 
You’ve made a good choice. If you’re in the public sector right now, you’re at the centre of the action....
 
CGE Vol.13 No.10 December 2007 David Crombie, former Toronto Mayor, Conservative Cabinet Minister, and Chancellor Emeritus of Rye...
Studies have shown that the global population will begin to decline, reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape of the world. Author and journalist, John Ibbitson, talks about how this shift will promote innovation and why it is a good news story for Canada. Ibbitson will be a keynote speaker at the 2018 Public Sector Conference....